TRMB
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TRMB +2.45% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +2.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.4% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.0%): After its 54 big gains in the past 5 years, TRMB was higher a day later 30 times out of 54; half the outcomes fell between -1.2% and +1.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: JP Morgan maintained Overweight, lowered target $76.00 → $75.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TRMB only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
60.02 +1.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
61.17 +3.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 60.54 · prior close 59.10 | |
| Bargain buy side |
58.20 -1.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
57.10 -3.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 57.91 | 2 in 10 days | 60.32 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 58.20 | 3 in 10 days | 60.02 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 58.47 | 4 in 10 days | 59.74 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 56.47 | 2 in 10 weeks | 61.85 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 57.10 | 3 in 10 weeks | 61.17 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 57.70 | 4 in 10 weeks | 60.53 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TRMB's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among TRMB's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Aug 30, 2021 |
95.72 +58.1% |
| Highest analyst target | 94.00 +55.3% |
| 52-week closing high Dec 5, 2025 |
83.52 +37.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 79.40 +31.1% |
| 200-day average | 61.75 +2.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 61.17 +1.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 61.00 +0.8% |
| Now | 60.54 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
59.10 -2.4% |
| 50-day average | 58.72 -3.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 57.10 -5.7% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 17, 2026 |
48.87 -19.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 36 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.