TROW
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TROW +1.78% on the last session vs SPY +0.07%: +1.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, crossed below 200-day avg (Oct 13): After its 16 crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, TROW was higher a day later 6 times out of 16; half the outcomes fell between -1.9% and +0.9%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: Evercore ISI Group maintained In-Line, lowered target $113 → $109.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TROW only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
100.80 +1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
102.28 +2.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 101.39 · prior close 99.62 | |
| Bargain buy side |
98.45 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
97.03 -2.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 98.08 | 2 in 10 days | 101.19 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 98.45 | 3 in 10 days | 100.80 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 98.81 | 4 in 10 days | 100.44 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 96.20 | 2 in 10 weeks | 103.16 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 97.03 | 3 in 10 weeks | 102.28 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 97.81 | 4 in 10 weeks | 101.47 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TROW's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among TROW's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Aug 31, 2021 |
177.67 +75.2% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 28, 2026 |
120.18 +18.5% |
| Highest analyst target | 120.00 +18.4% |
| 50-day average | 106.88 +5.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 106.77 +5.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 102.28 +0.9% |
| 200-day average | 101.68 +0.3% |
| Now | 101.39 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
99.62 -1.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 97.03 -4.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 90.00 -11.2% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 20, 2026 |
84.12 -17.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 41 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.