TRV
Moving with the market
- TRV +0.73% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +0.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings tomorrow before the open: EPS $7.43 expected (25 analysts); it moved ±3.8% on average after its last 8 reports.
- The financials ETF (XLF) +1.2% (+1.1 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 8): After its 65 big gains in the past 5 years, TRV was higher a week later 41 times out of 65; half the outcomes fell between -0.7% and +1.7%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (2 positive, 1 negative); latest: JP Morgan maintained Neutral, raised target $348 → $352.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TRV only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
382.07 +1.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
387.39 +2.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 380.56 · prior close 377.82 | |
| Bargain buy side |
373.62 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
368.49 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 372.26 | 2 in 10 days | 383.46 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 373.62 | 3 in 10 days | 382.07 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 374.89 | 4 in 10 days | 380.78 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 365.51 | 2 in 10 weeks | 390.55 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 368.49 | 3 in 10 weeks | 387.39 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 371.29 | 4 in 10 weeks | 384.47 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TRV's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among TRV's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 430.00 +13.0% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jul 28, 2026 |
395.87 +4.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 387.39 +1.8% |
| Now | 380.56 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
377.82 -0.7% |
| 50-day average | 368.55 -3.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 368.49 -3.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 360.54 -5.3% |
| 200-day average | 321.74 -15.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 262.00 -31.2% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
257.63 -32.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 51 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.