TSCO
Moving with its group (XLY +1.5%)
- TSCO +0.98% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Oct 22 before the open: EPS $0.40 expected (12 analysts); it moved ±5.0% on average after its last 8 reports.
- The consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) +1.5% (+1.4 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 66 big drops in the past 5 years, TSCO was higher a week later 37 times out of 66; half the outcomes fell between -2.3% and +2.6%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TSCO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
33.31 +1.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% reached today |
34.04 +4.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 33.06 · prior close 32.74 | |
| Bargain buy side |
32.18 -1.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
31.49 -3.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 31.99 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 33.50 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 32.18 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 33.31 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 32.35 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 33.14 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 31.10 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 34.47 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 31.49 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 34.04 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 31.86 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 33.64 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TSCO's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | -2.6% | +0.9% | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | -3.7% | -3.6% | -1.5% | — |
| Aug 17, 2026 | -3.2% | +4.3% | -4.8% | — |
| Jul 30, 2026 | -2.5% | +12.8% | +15.7% | — |
| Jul 6, 2026 | -4.8% | +0.1% | +9.6% | +3.6% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -2.9% | +5.6% | +3.7% | +20.5% |
| May 26, 2026 | -5.8% | +1.5% | +4.0% | +20.5% |
| May 7, 2026 | -2.4% | -3.9% | -4.3% | +9.8% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among TSCO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Aug 28, 2025 |
61.18 +85.0% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 27, 2025 |
55.04 +66.5% |
| Highest analyst target | 50.00 +51.2% |
| 200-day average | 38.61 +16.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 36.44 +10.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 34.04 +3.0% |
| 50-day average | 33.69 +1.9% |
| Now | 33.06 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
32.74 -1.0% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 31.49 -4.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 31.00 -6.2% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 3, 2026 |
28.94 -12.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 33 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.