TSEM
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TSEM −1.78% on the last session vs SPY +0.13%: −1.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TSEM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
218.90 +4.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
231.58 +10.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 205.43 · prior close 209.16 | |
| Bargain buy side |
199.85 -4.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
188.91 -9.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 196.92 | 2 in 10 days | 222.17 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 199.85 | 3 in 10 days | 218.90 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 202.62 | 4 in 10 days | 215.91 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 182.77 | 2 in 10 weeks | 239.37 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 188.91 | 3 in 10 weeks | 231.58 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 194.83 | 4 in 10 weeks | 224.55 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TSEM's daily swings (about 4.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -3.9% | -15.7% | — | — |
| Sep 24, 2026 | -5.7% | +11.1% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -3.9% | +5.4% | +9.9% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -5.4% | +6.9% | +12.7% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -8.8% | -11.6% | -8.9% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -11.9% | +23.3% | -2.4% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -10.4% | -5.9% | -9.5% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -5.2% | +9.5% | +11.6% | -12.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among TSEM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 24, 2000 |
598.12 +191.2% |
| 52-week closing high Jun 22, 2026 |
316.85 +54.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 231.58 +12.7% |
| 50-day average | 226.41 +10.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
209.16 +1.8% |
| Now | 205.43 |
| 200-day average | 201.69 -1.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 188.91 -8.0% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 22, 2025 |
72.74 -64.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 32 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.