TSLQ
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,080 | — | -0.1%529/1079 up | -0.6%514/1075 up | -2.8%468/1059 up | -11.4%388/1017 up |
| Big drop Oct 26 (-8.2% or worse) | 57 | — | -0.4%27/57 up | +0.7%31/56 up | -7.3%23/55 up | -28.6%14/53 up |
| Big gain (+7.6% or better) | 57 | — | -0.9%26/57 up | -2.9%25/57 up | -9.4%23/57 up | -17.2%17/55 up |
| Earnings beat | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week low Oct 27 | 12 | — | -1.4%4/12 up | -6.2%5/11 up | +4.9%6/11 up | -21.6%3/11 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 6 | — | 0.0%3/6 up | -4.6%3/6 up | -20.7%2/6 up | -32.6%1/5 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 6 | — | -0.7%2/6 up | -6.1%3/6 up | -17.9%1/6 up | -34.7%1/5 up |
| RSI oversold | 12 | — | -2.0%4/12 up | -1.8%6/12 up | -13.2%5/12 up | +4.3%7/12 up |
| RSI overbought | 11 | — | +1.7%8/11 up | +2.1%6/11 up | -0.5%4/11 up | -20.3%2/11 up |
| Volume spike | 8 | — | -6.5%1/8 up | -9.8%2/8 up | -15.6%3/8 up | -31.2%2/8 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) | 6 | — | -7.9%1/6 up | -4.5%3/6 up | -38.8%0/6 up | -50.1%1/6 up |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is TSLQ's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Any day
Every session: the plain holding return, the baseline for the events below.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1079 | -0.10% | 529 of 1079 | -0.09% |
-45%
+31%
|
|
| 1 week | 1075 ≈215 indep. | -0.57% | 514 of 1075 | -1.30% |
-57%
+52%
|
|
| 1 month | 1059 ≈51 indep. | -2.82% | 468 of 1059 | -4.45% |
-72%
+145%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 1017 ≈17 indep. | -11.37% | 388 of 1017 | -15.90% |
-86%
+171%
|
Range of outcomes: all of TSLQ's days in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Any day by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 160 | -0.1%160 events vs -0.1% | -2.7%160 events vs -2.7% | -8.9%160 events vs -8.9% | -18.6%143 events vs -18.6% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 721 | -0.1%720 events vs -0.1% | -0.2%716 events vs -0.2% | -4.5%700 events vs -4.5% | -9.7%675 events vs -9.7% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 388 | -0.1%388 events vs -0.1% | -0.4%388 events vs -0.4% | -4.4%388 events vs -4.4% | -17.6%376 events vs -17.6% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | 643 | -0.1%642 events vs -0.1% | -0.7%638 events vs -0.7% | -3.1%622 events vs -3.1% | -7.5%592 events vs -7.5% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 438 | 0.0%438 events vs 0.0% | -0.2%438 events vs -0.2% | -0.2%435 events vs -0.2% | -13.5%426 events vs -13.5% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | 623 | -0.1%622 events vs -0.1% | -0.7%618 events vs -0.7% | -4.2%605 events vs -4.2% | -9.5%572 events vs -9.5% |
The same event split by where TSLQ stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.