TT
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TT −4.11% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −4.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (-4.1% today so far, past its big-drop line of -1.9%): After its 58 big drops in the past 5 years, TT was higher a month later 36 times out of 58; half the outcomes fell between -1.9% and +7.5%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.2× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
477.49 +1.3% reached 3 in 10 days |
485.26 +3.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 451.91 · prior close 471.29 | |
| Bargain buy side |
465.17 -1.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
457.72 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 463.20 | 2 in 10 days | 479.52 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 465.17 | 3 in 10 days | 477.49 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 467.02 | 4 in 10 days | 475.60 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 453.40 | 2 in 10 weeks | 489.89 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 457.72 | 3 in 10 weeks | 485.26 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 461.79 | 4 in 10 weeks | 480.99 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TT's daily swings (about 1.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among TT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 575.00 +27.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 527.69 +16.8% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 25, 2026 |
502.27 +11.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 485.26 +7.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
471.29 +4.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 457.72 +1.3% |
| 50-day average | 454.90 +0.7% |
| Now | 451.91 |
| 200-day average | 449.64 -0.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 422.00 -6.6% |
| 52-week closing low Jan 7, 2026 |
373.79 -17.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.