TWLO
Moving with the market
- TWLO +0.08% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: +0.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 49 big drops in the past 5 years, TWLO was higher a week later 28 times out of 49; half the outcomes fell between -2.8% and +4.8%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: JP Morgan maintained Overweight, raised target $260 → $335.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TWLO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
281.41 +3.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
294.68 +8.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 271.35 · prior close 271.12 | |
| Bargain buy side |
261.20 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
249.44 -8.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 258.06 | 2 in 10 days | 284.84 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 261.20 | 3 in 10 days | 281.41 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 264.17 | 4 in 10 days | 278.26 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 242.78 | 2 in 10 weeks | 302.76 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 249.44 | 3 in 10 weeks | 294.68 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 255.82 | 4 in 10 weeks | 287.34 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TWLO's daily swings (about 3.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | -6.8% | +0.4% | — | — |
| Sep 25, 2026 | -8.0% | +6.8% | — | — |
| Aug 12, 2026 | -3.6% | -10.0% | -7.8% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -3.1% | +2.6% | +28.2% | — |
| Jul 21, 2026 | -4.4% | -1.0% | +13.1% | — |
| Jun 16, 2026 | -4.6% | -2.3% | +7.3% | +24.0% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -4.5% | -9.7% | -4.6% | +3.1% |
| May 20, 2026 | -3.4% | -2.5% | -3.0% | +16.1% |
Big drop and big gain: among TWLO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 18, 2021 |
443.49 +63.4% |
| Highest analyst target | 335.00 +23.5% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 1, 2026 |
301.27 +11.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 294.68 +8.6% |
| Now | 271.35 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
271.12 -0.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 265.71 -2.1% |
| 50-day average | 252.90 -6.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 249.44 -8.1% |
| 200-day average | 182.43 -32.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 165.00 -39.2% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 16, 2025 |
106.23 -60.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 10 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.