TWST
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TWST −4.57% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: −4.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TWST only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
157.79 +6.5% reached 3 in 10 days |
170.57 +15.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 141.40 · prior close 148.16 | |
| Bargain buy side |
139.12 -6.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
128.70 -13.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 136.30 | 2 in 10 days | 161.05 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 139.12 | 3 in 10 days | 157.79 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 141.79 | 4 in 10 days | 154.81 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 122.94 | 2 in 10 weeks | 178.55 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 128.70 | 3 in 10 weeks | 170.57 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 134.30 | 4 in 10 weeks | 163.45 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TWST's daily swings (about 6.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among TWST's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 20, 2021 |
207.97 +47.1% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 5, 2026 |
205.00 +45.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 170.57 +20.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
148.16 +4.8% |
| 50-day average | 147.37 +4.2% |
| Now | 141.40 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 128.70 -9.0% |
| 200-day average | 82.74 -41.5% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 19, 2025 |
25.45 -82.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 8 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.