TXG
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TXG −2.98% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −3.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TXG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
77.32 +5.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
82.88 +13.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 70.92 · prior close 73.10 | |
| Bargain buy side |
69.11 -5.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
64.47 -11.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 67.86 | 2 in 10 days | 78.75 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 69.11 | 3 in 10 days | 77.32 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 70.29 | 4 in 10 days | 76.02 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 61.90 | 2 in 10 weeks | 86.33 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 64.47 | 3 in 10 weeks | 82.88 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 66.97 | 4 in 10 weeks | 79.79 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TXG's daily swings (about 5.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among TXG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Apr 26, 2021 |
202.37 +185.3% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 5, 2026 |
97.74 +37.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 82.88 +16.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
73.10 +3.1% |
| Now | 70.92 |
| 50-day average | 70.38 -0.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 64.47 -9.1% |
| 200-day average | 37.53 -47.1% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
11.54 -83.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 7 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.