TXN
Reddit attention is surging
- TXN +4.44% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +3.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (Oct 2): After its 12 overbought readings in the past 5 years, TXN typically lost 2.5% over the next month (median) and was higher only 33% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -6.7% and +6.7%. An ordinary month: -0.4%. Among S&P 500 stocks after overbought readings, that ranks #398 of 501.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | 0.0%#386 H | +0.2%#319 H | -0.4%#436 H | +1.4%#309 M |
| Big drop (-2.4% or worse) | 58 | +0.4%#131 H | +0.1%#328 H | +1.1%#264 H | +0.8%#373 M |
| Big gain (+2.7% or better) | 70 | 0.0%#358 H | +0.9%#76 H | 0.0%#360 H | +0.5%#340 M |
| Earnings beat | 16 | +0.4%#67 M | +1.5%#49 M | +4.0%#61 M | -2.2%#434 M |
| Earnings miss | 4 | +0.1%#127 L | -0.8%#169 L | -2.1%#218 L | +8.9%#46 L |
| 52-week high | 10 | -0.1%#247 M | -0.8%#340 M | -4.0%#432 M | -2.7%#293 M |
| 52-week low | 2 | +0.4%– | -2.8%– | +6.8%– | +31.7%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 17 | 0.0%#281 M | -0.5%#461 M | +4.4%#23 M | +1.0%#375 M |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 17 | +0.6%#11 M | -1.0%#477 M | +4.1%#39 M | +3.0%#329 M |
| RSI oversold | 7 | +0.2%#217 L | +0.8%#225 L | +6.2%#6 L | +8.9%#209 L |
| RSI overbought latest session | 13 | +0.2%#175 M | -0.3%#257 M | -2.5%#398 M | +2.2%#212 M |
| Reddit spike | 2 | -2.5%– | -3.8%– | +1.9%– | -4.5%– |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is TXN's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Crossed above 200-day avg
The close moves above its 200-day moving average.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 17 | +0.01% (-0.8 to +0.9) | Medium | #281 of 497 | 53% | +0.32% |
-3%
+4%
|
|
| 1 week | 17 | -0.51% (-1.9 to +0.3) | Medium | #461 of 497 | 41% | -0.75% |
-8%
+10%
|
|
| 1 month | 17 | +4.45% (+0.9 to +5.2) | Medium | #23 of 497 | 71% | +1.18% |
-8%
+25%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 17 ≈12 indep. | +1.05% (-5.4 to +4.8) | Medium | #375 of 494 | 53% | -4.05% |
-24%
+62%
|
Range of outcomes: all of TXN's crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Crossed above 200-day avg by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 10 | -0.8%M vs -0.1% | -0.2%M vs -0.2% | -1.1%M vs -1.2% | +2.2%M vs +0.2% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 7 | +0.9%L vs +0.2% | -1.2%L vs +0.5% | +5.2%L vs +1.4% | -1.3%L vs +4.4% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 11 | -0.5%M vs 0.0% | -0.1%M vs +0.4% | +2.7%M vs -1.1% | +1.0%M vs -0.4% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 6 | +1.2%L vs +0.1% | -1.7%L vs -0.1% | +7.3%L vs +0.5% | +3.0%L vs +3.2% |
The same event split by where TXN stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest crosses above the 200-day average
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2026 | Mar 23 @ $186.72 | +0.8% on the day | +3.2% | -1.2% | +25.3% | +62.2% |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Jan 6 @ $188.92 | +8.4% on the day | -3.3% | -1.9% | +17.4% | +9.5% |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Dec 3 @ $179.58 | +4.2% on the day | -1.4% | -0.5% | -3.0% | +6.5% |
| Jul 28, 2025 | Jul 28 @ $183.15 | +2.3% on the day | +1.1% | -2.7% | +9.6% | -10.0% |
| May 13, 2025 | May 13 @ $182.13 | +0.5% on the day | -0.5% | +0.3% | +6.1% | +3.4% |
| Feb 28, 2025 | Feb 28 @ $188.07 | +2.5% on the day | -0.8% | -2.8% | -8.3% | -5.9% |
| Jan 21, 2025 | Jan 21 @ $185.96 | +1.5% on the day | +0.9% | -7.5% | +5.2% | -24.3% |
| Dec 11, 2024 | Dec 11 @ $182.60 | +0.8% on the day | 0.0% | -3.5% | +0.9% | -5.4% |
| Apr 22, 2024 | Apr 22 @ $152.55 | +2.4% on the day | +1.2% | +9.7% | +22.6% | +22.2% |
| Feb 20, 2024 | Feb 20 @ $151.91 | +1.5% on the day | +0.8% | +1.4% | +4.4% | +23.3% |
| Jan 18, 2024 | Jan 18 @ $154.58 | +2.8% on the day | +4.0% | +0.3% | -3.2% | -1.2% |
| Dec 14, 2023 | Dec 14 @ $156.31 | +4.3% on the day | -0.1% | -1.2% | -3.8% | +1.0% |
| Jun 27, 2023 | Jun 27 @ $160.68 | +4.5% on the day | -0.8% | +0.1% | +0.8% | -9.8% |
| May 18, 2023 | May 18 @ $154.75 | +2.7% on the day | +0.2% | -0.1% | +2.7% | -1.3% |
| Dec 21, 2022 | Dec 21 @ $151.51 | +1.6% on the day | -2.4% | -2.2% | +4.9% | +7.1% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.