TXN
Chip stocks fall amid AI debt, rate concerns
- TXN −1.29% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −1.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Wed after the close: EPS $2.42 expected (23 analysts); it moved ±8.7% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Semiconductors: Bloomberg reports chip stocks deepen losses as concerns mount over rates and AI debt. (Bloomberg.com)
- Semiconductors basket -0.9% (-1.0 pts vs SPY; INTC -4.3%, MRVL -3.5%, AMD -3.3%, NXPI +2.9%): the stock moved with its peers. Overnight: TSMC (Taipei) -2.2%.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TXN only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
285.85 +1.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
292.41 +4.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 277.02 · prior close 280.65 | |
| Bargain buy side |
275.55 -1.8% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
269.37 -4.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 273.91 | 2 in 10 days | 287.56 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 275.55 | 3 in 10 days | 285.85 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 277.08 | 4 in 10 days | 284.26 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 265.80 | 2 in 10 weeks | 296.33 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 269.37 | 3 in 10 weeks | 292.41 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 272.73 | 4 in 10 weeks | 288.80 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TXN's daily swings (about 1.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -2.8% | -2.9% | — | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -3.0% | -0.1% | +8.9% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -3.8% | -4.5% | -5.2% | — |
| Aug 3, 2026 | -2.4% | +4.2% | -5.8% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -3.3% | -2.1% | -3.5% | -3.1% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -3.4% | +4.2% | -4.8% | +1.1% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | -8.5% | +6.3% | -2.9% | -2.1% |
| Jun 16, 2026 | -2.4% | -0.9% | -7.1% | -14.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among TXN's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 400.00 +44.4% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 22, 2026 |
330.59 +19.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 324.71 +17.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 292.41 +5.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
280.65 +1.3% |
| Now | 277.02 |
| 50-day average | 272.30 -1.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 269.37 -2.8% |
| 200-day average | 252.26 -8.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 225.00 -18.8% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
150.79 -45.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.