TXT
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- TXT +1.42% on the last session vs SPY +0.00%: +1.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 12): After its 59 big gains in the past 5 years, TXT was higher a month later 33 times out of 59; half the outcomes fell between -3.5% and +4.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: TD Cowen maintained Buy, lowered target $105 → $100.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices TXT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
74.87 +1.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
76.22 +3.3% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 74.85 · prior close 73.80 | |
| Bargain buy side |
72.74 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
71.46 -3.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 72.40 | 2 in 10 days | 75.23 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 72.74 | 3 in 10 days | 74.87 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 73.06 | 4 in 10 days | 74.55 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 70.71 | 2 in 10 weeks | 77.02 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 71.46 | 3 in 10 weeks | 76.22 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 72.16 | 4 in 10 weeks | 75.48 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From TXT's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among TXT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 115.00 +53.6% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Feb 20, 2026 |
100.70 +34.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 100.27 +34.0% |
| 200-day average | 88.91 +18.8% |
| Lowest analyst target | 86.00 +14.9% |
| 50-day average | 80.48 +7.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 76.22 +1.8% |
| Now | 74.85 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
73.80 -1.4% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 7, 2026 |
73.03 -2.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 71.46 -4.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.