U
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- U +1.80% on the last session vs SPY +0.00%: +1.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices U only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
43.02 +3.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
45.11 +9.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 42.15 · prior close 41.40 | |
| Bargain buy side |
39.84 -3.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
37.99 -8.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 39.35 | 2 in 10 days | 43.56 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 39.84 | 3 in 10 days | 43.02 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 40.31 | 4 in 10 days | 42.52 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 36.95 | 2 in 10 weeks | 46.39 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 37.99 | 3 in 10 weeks | 45.11 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 38.99 | 4 in 10 weeks | 43.95 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From U's daily swings (about 4.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | -6.1% | +5.3% | — | — |
| Jul 31, 2026 | -4.9% | +35.6% | +32.8% | — |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -5.7% | +0.9% | +12.6% | +58.1% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -5.0% | -8.8% | +1.5% | +39.5% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | -5.8% | +8.7% | +5.2% | +17.7% |
| Feb 23, 2026 | -6.1% | +10.2% | +5.9% | +49.3% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | -26.3% | -13.6% | -9.2% | +25.6% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | -24.2% | -13.7% | -31.2% | -6.8% |
Big drop and big gain: among U's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 18, 2021 |
201.12 +377.2% |
| 52-week closing high Dec 9, 2025 |
49.47 +17.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 45.11 +7.0% |
| 50-day average | 43.60 +3.4% |
| Now | 42.15 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
41.40 -1.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 37.99 -9.8% |
| 200-day average | 31.92 -24.3% |
| 52-week closing low Feb 23, 2026 |
17.13 -59.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.