UAL
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- UAL +1.38% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +1.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings Tue after the close: EPS $2.59 expected (19 analysts); it moved ±4.1% on average after its last 8 reports.
- Less than its group: its travel & car rental peers +3.7% (+3.6 pts vs SPY).
- Aftermath, big drop (Oct 14): After its 51 big drops in the past 5 years, UAL was higher a day later 30 times out of 51; half the outcomes fell between -0.9% and +2.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: Susquehanna maintained Positive, lowered target $165 → $150.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices UAL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
101.18 +2.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
103.99 +5.1% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 100.33 · prior close 98.96 | |
| Bargain buy side |
96.79 -2.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
94.17 -4.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 96.09 | 2 in 10 days | 101.91 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 96.79 | 3 in 10 days | 101.18 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 97.44 | 4 in 10 days | 100.50 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 92.67 | 2 in 10 weeks | 105.68 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 94.17 | 3 in 10 weeks | 103.99 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 95.60 | 4 in 10 weeks | 102.44 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From UAL's daily swings (about 2.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | -3.9% | +0.2% | — | — |
| Aug 20, 2026 | -3.5% | +0.6% | +2.4% | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | -4.5% | -1.2% | -13.4% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -3.8% | -3.0% | +4.3% | -11.3% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -6.2% | +12.7% | +17.9% | +3.6% |
| May 19, 2026 | -3.7% | +26.4% | +32.8% | +29.9% |
| Apr 22, 2026 | -5.6% | -3.4% | +8.6% | +25.8% |
| Mar 30, 2026 | -3.7% | +4.8% | +4.0% | +59.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among UAL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 203.00 +102.3% |
| Mean analyst target | 152.78 +52.3% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jun 26, 2026 |
136.11 +35.7% |
| 50-day average | 112.52 +12.2% |
| 200-day average | 108.80 +8.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 103.99 +3.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 102.00 +1.7% |
| Now | 100.33 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
98.96 -1.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 94.17 -6.1% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
85.21 -15.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 21 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.