UDR
Moving with its group (XLRE +1.3%)
- UDR +1.25% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +1.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- The real estate ETF (XLRE) +1.3% (+1.2 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices UDR only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
34.28 +0.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
34.68 +2.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 34.38 · prior close 33.96 | |
| Bargain buy side |
33.64 -0.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
33.25 -2.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 33.54 | 2 in 10 days | 34.39 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 33.64 | 3 in 10 days | 34.28 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 33.74 | 4 in 10 days | 34.18 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 33.02 | 2 in 10 weeks | 34.92 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 33.25 | 3 in 10 weeks | 34.68 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 33.46 | 4 in 10 weeks | 34.46 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From UDR's daily swings (about 1.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among UDR's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 4, 2022 |
50.06 +45.6% |
| Highest analyst target | 46.00 +33.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 41.26 +20.0% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 7, 2026 |
40.77 +18.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 38.00 +10.5% |
| 200-day average | 36.38 +5.8% |
| 50-day average | 35.52 +3.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 34.68 +0.9% |
| Now | 34.38 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
33.96 -1.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 33.25 -3.3% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 29, 2025 |
32.38 -5.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 47 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.