Moving with its uranium peers
- UEC +2.21% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +2.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Uranium basket +2.9% (+2.8 pts vs SPY; NXE +4.3%, CCJ +1.5%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices UEC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
8.02 +4.2% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
8.44 +9.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 7.87 · prior close 7.70 | |
| Bargain buy side |
7.39 -4.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
7.03 -8.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 7.29 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 8.13 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 7.39 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 8.02 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 7.48 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 7.92 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 6.82 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 8.69 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 7.03 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 8.44 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 7.22 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 8.21 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From UEC's daily swings (about 4.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -6.3% | -18.7% | — | — |
| Sep 11, 2026 | -5.2% | -6.1% | -15.5% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -9.0% | -6.9% | -25.1% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -7.7% | +5.4% | +20.2% | -17.5% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -6.5% | +4.9% | +8.3% | -5.6% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -8.7% | -33.1% | -24.8% | -17.5% |
| May 12, 2026 | -5.9% | -23.2% | -31.4% | -26.7% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | -6.0% | +6.3% | -3.8% | -29.5% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -3.9% | — | — | — |
| Apr 4, 2025 | -5.2% | +10.9% | +31.5% | +49.8% |
| Sep 6, 2024 | -7.2% | +19.2% | +57.0% | +101.2% |
| Apr 25, 2023 | -2.8% | -3.7% | +9.3% | +37.0% |
| Mar 23, 2023 | -14.7% | +6.6% | -7.0% | +25.4% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among UEC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 26.75 +239.9% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jan 28, 2026 |
20.14 +155.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 16.12 +104.8% |
| 200-day average | 12.88 +63.7% |
| 50-day average | 10.62 +34.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 10.00 +27.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 8.44 +7.2% |
| Now | 7.87 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
7.70 -2.2% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
7.70 -2.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 7.03 -10.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 20 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.