UGP
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices UGP only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
6.05 +4.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
6.36 +9.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 5.72 · prior close 5.81 | |
| Bargain buy side |
5.58 -3.9% reached 3 in 10 days |
5.31 -8.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 5.51 | 2 in 10 days | 6.13 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 5.58 | 3 in 10 days | 6.05 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 5.65 | 4 in 10 days | 5.98 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 5.16 | 2 in 10 weeks | 6.55 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 5.31 | 3 in 10 weeks | 6.36 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 5.46 | 4 in 10 weeks | 6.19 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From UGP's daily swings (about 4.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
Big drop and big gain: among UGP's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 25, 2018 |
10.16 +77.5% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 21, 2026 |
7.97 +39.2% |
| 50-day average | 7.26 +26.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 6.36 +11.1% |
| 200-day average | 5.81 +1.6% |
| Previous close Oct 30, 2026 |
5.81 +1.5% |
| Now | 5.72 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 5.31 -7.3% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 22, 2025 |
3.53 -38.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 27 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.