UHS
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- UHS +1.20% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: +1.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 14): After its 58 big gains in the past 5 years, UHS was higher a week later 35 times out of 58; half the outcomes fell between -1.6% and +3.8%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices UHS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
188.76 +1.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
192.36 +3.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 188.12 · prior close 185.89 | |
| Bargain buy side |
183.07 -1.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
179.64 -3.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 182.16 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 189.70 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 183.07 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 188.76 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 183.92 | 4 in 10 days | 187.88 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 177.65 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 194.51 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 179.64 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 192.36 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 181.51 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 190.38 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From UHS's daily swings (about 1.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | +2.5% | +0.1% | — | — |
| Aug 21, 2026 | +2.5% | -3.2% | +1.3% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | +3.0% | +8.1% | +13.3% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | +2.6% | +0.9% | +15.7% | +21.1% |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +5.1% | -1.7% | +6.8% | +10.7% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | +2.4% | -0.7% | +8.4% | +15.0% |
| Apr 27, 2026 | +3.0% | -7.5% | -14.0% | -7.3% |
| Apr 6, 2026 | +2.6% | +1.0% | -8.8% | -10.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among UHS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 290.00 +54.2% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Nov 26, 2025 |
243.12 +29.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 194.94 +3.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 192.36 +2.3% |
| Now | 188.12 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
185.89 -1.2% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 179.64 -4.5% |
| 200-day average | 178.34 -5.2% |
| 50-day average | 174.99 -7.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 166.00 -11.8% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 18, 2026 |
141.00 -25.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 45 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.