ULCC
Moving with the market
- ULCC +0.41% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +0.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ULCC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
5.09 +4.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
5.36 +9.9% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 4.90 · prior close 4.88 | |
| Bargain buy side |
4.68 -4.1% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
4.44 -9.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 4.61 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 5.16 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 4.68 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 5.09 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 4.74 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 5.03 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 4.31 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 5.53 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 4.44 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 5.36 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 4.57 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 5.21 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ULCC's daily swings (about 4.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | -5.8% | +2.2% | — | — |
| Aug 10, 2026 | -8.1% | -6.3% | -16.7% | — |
| Jul 23, 2026 | -7.6% | +26.9% | +8.4% | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -5.8% | -13.1% | +8.1% | -17.0% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -12.8% | +20.0% | +18.7% | -0.1% |
| May 12, 2026 | -6.2% | -10.0% | +28.6% | +41.9% |
| Apr 21, 2026 | -12.1% | -10.4% | +10.9% | +40.7% |
| Mar 18, 2026 | -6.9% | +19.4% | +46.8% | +114.2% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among ULCC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jun 1, 2021 |
21.91 +347.1% |
| 52-week closing high Jun 25, 2026 |
8.06 +64.5% |
| 50-day average | 6.00 +22.4% |
| 200-day average | 5.39 +10.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 5.36 +9.4% |
| Now | 4.90 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
4.88 -0.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 4.44 -9.4% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 18, 2026 |
3.10 -36.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 6 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.