ULTA
Moving with its group (XLY +1.5%)
- ULTA +2.84% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +2.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- The consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) +1.5% (+1.4 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.8% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.4%): After its 65 big gains in the past 5 years, ULTA was higher a month later 43 times out of 65; half the outcomes fell between -3.0% and +8.5%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices ULTA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
602.60 +1.7% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
615.43 +3.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 609.26 · prior close 592.42 | |
| Bargain buy side |
582.41 -1.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
570.27 -3.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 579.20 | 2 in 10 days | 605.95 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 582.41 | 3 in 10 days | 602.60 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 585.42 | 4 in 10 days | 599.50 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 563.26 | 2 in 10 weeks | 623.09 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 570.27 | 3 in 10 weeks | 615.43 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 576.89 | 4 in 10 weeks | 608.37 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From ULTA's daily swings (about 1.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among ULTA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 731.00 +20.0% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Feb 17, 2026 |
706.82 +16.0% |
| Mean analyst target | 631.44 +3.6% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 615.43 +1.0% |
| Now | 609.26 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
592.42 -2.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 570.27 -6.4% |
| 200-day average | 554.24 -9.0% |
| 50-day average | 544.66 -10.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 500.00 -17.9% |
| 52-week closing low Jun 17, 2026 |
450.75 -26.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 19 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.