UNFI
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- UNFI +0.94% on the last session vs SPY +0.07%: +0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices UNFI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
48.67 +2.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
49.92 +4.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 48.13 · prior close 47.68 | |
| Bargain buy side |
46.71 -2.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
45.54 -4.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 46.40 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 48.99 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 46.71 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 48.67 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 47.00 | 4 in 10 days | 48.37 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 44.87 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 50.67 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 45.54 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 49.92 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 46.18 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 49.23 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From UNFI's daily swings (about 2.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | +5.5% | -3.0% | — | — |
| Jun 18, 2026 | +4.1% | -5.0% | -3.5% | -9.5% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | +4.8% | -9.2% | -15.0% | -20.9% |
| May 27, 2026 | +4.2% | +0.3% | -5.4% | -7.6% |
| May 8, 2026 | +4.5% | -3.3% | -11.4% | -11.5% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | +4.0% | -1.5% | +3.8% | -0.6% |
| Apr 8, 2026 | +6.0% | +0.8% | +7.5% | +2.9% |
| Mar 25, 2026 | +5.6% | +2.9% | +10.5% | +15.5% |
Big drop and big gain: among UNFI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 26, 2015 |
83.53 +73.6% |
| 52-week closing high Jun 5, 2026 |
55.52 +15.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 49.92 +3.7% |
| Now | 48.13 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
47.68 -0.9% |
| 50-day average | 45.93 -4.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 45.54 -5.4% |
| 200-day average | 44.94 -6.6% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 10, 2025 |
31.42 -34.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 30 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.