UNH
Moving with its group (XLV +2.5%)
- UNH +4.30% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +4.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Reported 3Q2026 Oct 13 before the open: EPS $4.69 vs $4.14 expected (beat, +$0.55, +13.3%); revenue $112.7B (+1.1% beat). The stock moved -0.2% on Tue's session (-0.2 pts vs SPY).
- Guidance: Raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $20.50, above prior $19.87 consensus. (release)
- The health care ETF (XLV) +2.5% (+2.4 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (RSI 71 today so far, above 70): After its 17 overbought readings in the past 5 years, UNH was higher a week later 5 times out of 17; half the outcomes fell between -2.3% and +0.1%. History, not a forecast.
- 11 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 77% positive over the week.
- 5 analyst actions in the past 10 days (1 positive, 3 negative); latest: Piper Sandler maintained Overweight, raised target $502 → $504.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.2× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices UNH only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
401.99 +1.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
410.00 +3.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 412.65 · prior close 395.62 | |
| Bargain buy side |
389.35 -1.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
381.74 -3.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 387.34 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 404.08 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 389.35 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 401.99 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 391.24 | 4 in 10 days | 400.05 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 377.34 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 414.79 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 381.74 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 410.00 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 385.89 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 405.59 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From UNH's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | +3.5% | -1.7% | -10.9% | — |
| Jul 7, 2026 | +2.4% | -0.7% | -3.6% | -11.0% |
| Jun 25, 2026 | +2.4% | +2.4% | +0.5% | -9.2% |
| Jun 4, 2026 | +5.2% | +2.3% | +8.6% | +1.7% |
| May 8, 2026 | +2.8% | +3.7% | +8.7% | +8.2% |
| Apr 21, 2026 | +7.0% | +6.0% | +10.8% | +25.4% |
| Apr 13, 2026 | +2.8% | +3.3% | +26.6% | +36.6% |
| Mar 31, 2026 | +3.4% | +13.1% | +36.9% | +58.5% |
Big drop and big gain: among UNH's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Nov 11, 2024 |
596.11 +44.5% |
| Highest analyst target | 529.00 +28.2% |
| Mean analyst target | 476.72 +15.5% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 21, 2026 |
433.68 +5.1% |
| Now | 412.65 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 410.00 -0.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
395.62 -4.1% |
| 50-day average | 386.21 -6.4% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 381.74 -7.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 380.00 -7.9% |
| 200-day average | 355.27 -13.9% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 27, 2026 |
255.97 -38.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 42 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.