UP
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | Reaction day | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,254 | — | -0.7%550/1253 up | -3.1%477/1249 up | -12.6%378/1233 up | -26.5%295/1191 up |
| Big drop (-8.2% or worse) | 64 | — | -0.2%30/64 up | -5.7%23/64 up | -14.7%20/64 up | -23.9%12/62 up |
| Big gain (+7.9% or better) | 67 | — | -1.7%26/67 up | -2.7%26/67 up | -14.7%23/65 up | -26.2%20/64 up |
| Earnings beat | 7 | +3.3%4/7 up | -2.8%2/7 up | -6.0%2/7 up | -22.6%2/7 up | -25.0%2/7 up |
| Earnings miss | 2 | -15.3%0/2 up | -1.5%0/2 up | -10.8%0/2 up | -42.2%0/2 up | -54.7%0/2 up |
| 52-week high | 1 | — | -3.0%0/1 up | -22.3%0/1 up | -37.3%0/1 up | -72.6%0/1 up |
| 52-week low | 13 | — | -1.6%4/13 up | -3.2%6/13 up | -7.7%4/12 up | -33.0%3/11 up |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 8 | — | -0.3%4/8 up | -9.1%3/8 up | -18.5%1/8 up | -24.1%2/8 up |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 7 | — | +1.2%4/7 up | -10.2%2/7 up | -15.7%2/7 up | -17.3%3/7 up |
| RSI oversold | 15 | — | -1.8%5/15 up | 0.0%7/15 up | -15.7%7/15 up | -7.4%6/14 up |
| RSI overbought | 10 | — | -1.3%3/10 up | -8.7%4/10 up | -21.0%3/10 up | -31.7%2/10 up |
| Volume spike | 25 | — | -1.8%9/25 up | -1.2%9/25 up | -14.1%10/25 up | -26.1%6/24 up |
| Theme selloff hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Theme rally hindsight | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mention spike (Trendy) Oct 29 | 11 | — | 0.0%5/11 up | +7.3%7/10 up | -26.6%3/10 up | -33.6%2/10 up |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | 1 | — | +7.1%1/1 up | +53.8%1/1 up | +37.3%1/1 up | -14.2%0/1 up |
| Insider unplanned sale | 7 | — | -2.5%3/7 up | -9.5%2/7 up | -22.8%1/7 up | -49.9%0/5 up |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; Reaction day (earnings only): the session that first traded on the report, from the close before it; under it, how many of the past events were followed by a gain (12/20 up). "Big" is UP's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
RSI overbought
The 14-day RSI rises above 70.
| Holding | Events | Median | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 10 | -1.35% | 3 of 10 | -2.48% |
-33%
+32%
|
|
| 1 week | 10 | -8.67% | 4 of 10 | -8.22% |
-29%
+22%
|
|
| 1 month | 10 | -20.98% | 3 of 10 | -23.01% |
-54%
+69%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 10 ≈9 indep. | -31.69% | 2 of 10 | -33.48% |
-65%
+42%
|
Range of outcomes: all of UP's overbought readings in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
RSI overbought by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg | 4 | +3.9%4 events vs -1.1% | +15.2%4 events vs -6.5% | -10.0%4 events vs -20.9% | -17.7%4 events vs -35.0% |
| Below its 200-day avg now | 5 | -15.3%5 events vs -0.7% | -15.3%5 events vs -2.9% | -24.0%5 events vs -11.6% | -56.1%5 events vs -21.5% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg | 10 | -1.3%10 events vs -0.9% | -8.7%10 events vs -5.1% | -21.0%10 events vs -18.4% | -31.7%10 events vs -30.2% |
| Below its 50-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg | 10 | -1.3%10 events vs -1.2% | -8.7%10 events vs -5.8% | -21.0%10 events vs -18.6% | -31.7%10 events vs -30.9% |
| Below its 20-day avg now | — | — | — | — | — |
The same event split by where UP stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence: each cell shows how many past events it rests on.
Latest overbought readings
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2026 | Jan 14 @ $22.00 | RSI 71.2, +4.8% on the day | -15.5% | -24.5% | -40.2% | -63.9% |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Aug 15 @ $36.00 | RSI 71.1, +26.8% on the day | +0.6% | +20.6% | +14.4% | -37.2% |
| May 23, 2025 | May 23 @ $33.60 | RSI 70.3, +3.1% on the day | -1.2% | -21.4% | -18.5% | +42.3% |
| May 8, 2025 | May 8 @ $29.40 | RSI 72.2, +25.6% on the day | -1.4% | +8.8% | +10.2% | -4.8% |
| Jul 2, 2024 | Jul 2 @ $60.40 | RSI 71.4, +36.0% on the day | +7.3% | +9.9% | -23.5% | -26.2% |
| Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 22 @ $63.40 | RSI 72.5, +15.3% on the day | +32.5% | +21.8% | -1.6% | -9.1% |
| Nov 24, 2023 | Nov 24 @ $49.80 | RSI 74.2, +16.4% on the day | -15.3% | -2.0% | +68.7% | +21.7% |
| Sep 12, 2023 | Sep 12 @ $79.20 | RSI 76.0, +36.5% on the day | -32.8% | -28.8% | -54.3% | -56.1% |
| Jan 11, 2023 | Jan 11 @ $300.00 | RSI 71.9, +7.1% on the day | -1.3% | -15.3% | -24.0% | -64.6% |
| Aug 12, 2022 | Aug 12 @ $562.00 | RSI 70.6, +10.2% on the day | -3.9% | -18.1% | -39.5% | -44.1% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. This is history, not a forecast: in our backtests, how a stock did after its past events did not predict its next one. Not advice.