URA
Moving with the market
- URA +0.56% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: +0.6 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.4× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices URA only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
36.52 +2.7% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
37.76 +6.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 35.74 · prior close 35.54 | |
| Bargain buy side |
34.59 -2.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
33.45 -5.9% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 34.29 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 36.84 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 34.59 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 36.52 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 34.87 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 36.22 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 32.80 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 38.51 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 33.45 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 37.76 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 34.07 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 37.07 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From URA's daily swings (about 2.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -4.5% | -11.0% | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -4.0% | -5.1% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -4.0% | -5.2% | -13.6% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -5.8% | +1.1% | -12.1% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -3.6% | +10.4% | -2.2% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -3.4% | +9.1% | +23.4% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -4.4% | +5.2% | +14.9% | -9.1% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -4.9% | -0.5% | +2.7% | -3.7% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | -0.9% | — | — | — |
| Apr 3, 2025 | -3.1% | -3.9% | +14.2% | +69.1% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among URA's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 2, 2011 |
88.11 +146.5% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 28, 2026 |
61.81 +72.9% |
| 200-day average | 47.85 +33.9% |
| 50-day average | 42.93 +20.1% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 37.76 +5.7% |
| Now | 35.74 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
35.54 -0.6% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
35.54 -0.6% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 33.45 -6.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 16 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.