URG
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- URG +7.45% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +7.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices URG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
0.86 +4.2% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
0.91 +9.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 0.89 · prior close 0.83 | |
| Bargain buy side |
0.80 -4.0% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
0.76 -8.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 0.79 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 0.88 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 0.80 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 0.86 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 0.81 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 0.85 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 0.74 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 0.94 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 0.76 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 0.91 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 0.78 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 0.88 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From URG's daily swings (about 4.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -8.2% | — | — | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -7.8% | -0.7% | -21.3% | — |
| Aug 20, 2026 | -5.0% | +15.0% | -7.5% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -5.4% | 0.0% | +17.2% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -5.3% | +3.2% | +8.0% | -33.6% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -7.9% | +3.9% | +0.8% | -17.8% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -5.5% | -16.1% | -21.9% | -21.3% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -8.1% | -23.8% | -27.5% | -29.5% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | -2.6% | -6.2% | — | — |
| Mar 27, 2025 | -4.0% | -12.5% | +6.9% | +38.9% |
| Feb 21, 2025 | -2.1% | +2.1% | -8.5% | -24.5% |
| Aug 5, 2024 | -3.8% | -2.0% | +7.9% | +22.8% |
| Apr 24, 2023 | -5.7% | +4.8% | +15.7% | +22.9% |
| Mar 15, 2023 | -5.9% | -5.2% | -1.0% | +9.4% |
| Jul 5, 2022 | -3.7% | -2.9% | +15.5% | +13.6% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among URG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 1, 2011 |
3.27 +266.7% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 14, 2025 |
2.10 +135.5% |
| 200-day average | 1.49 +67.0% |
| 50-day average | 1.25 +39.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 0.91 +2.0% |
| Now | 0.89 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
0.83 -6.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
0.83 -6.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 0.76 -15.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 18 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.