URI

Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet

• URI +4.54% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: +3.8 pts of stock-specific move.
• Aftermath, big drop (Sep 29): After its 62 big drops in the past 5 years, URI typically gained 4.5% over the next month (median) and was higher 66% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -2.8% and +13.0%. An ordinary month: +2.0%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big drops, that ranks #70 of 500.
• Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.