URNJ
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- URNJ +2.56% on the last session vs SPY +0.07%: +2.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 2.4× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices URNJ only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
17.76 +3.4% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
18.51 +7.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 17.62 · prior close 17.18 | |
| Bargain buy side |
16.62 -3.3% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
15.94 -7.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 16.44 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 17.96 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 16.62 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 17.76 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 16.78 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 17.58 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 15.56 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 18.96 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 15.94 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 18.51 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 16.31 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 18.10 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From URNJ's daily swings (about 3.4% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -5.4% | -14.9% | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -4.5% | -9.5% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -5.1% | -8.2% | -22.1% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -7.6% | +1.3% | -18.4% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -4.7% | -1.9% | +20.9% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -4.7% | +6.6% | +12.4% | -20.9% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -6.7% | +3.2% | +4.6% | -9.1% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | -4.3% | -6.8% | -8.2% | -8.7% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | -3.5% | 0.0% | — | — |
| Apr 3, 2025 | -3.6% | -3.3% | +17.1% | +53.3% |
| Feb 25, 2025 | -4.3% | -6.3% | -6.1% | +15.4% |
| Sep 3, 2024 | -10.0% | +0.3% | +32.9% | +29.4% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among URNJ's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jan 28, 2026 |
40.43 +129.5% |
| 200-day average | 27.48 +55.9% |
| 50-day average | 23.09 +31.0% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 18.51 +5.1% |
| Now | 17.62 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
17.18 -2.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
17.18 -2.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 15.94 -9.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 4 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.