URNM
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- URNM +2.73% on the last session vs SPY +0.05%: +2.7 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.6× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices URNM only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
43.65 +2.9% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
45.21 +6.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 43.58 · prior close 42.42 | |
| Bargain buy side |
41.23 -2.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
39.80 -6.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 40.85 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 44.05 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 41.23 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 43.65 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 41.59 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 43.27 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 38.99 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 46.15 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 39.80 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 45.21 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 40.58 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 44.35 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From URNM's daily swings (about 2.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -4.8% | -11.4% | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -4.1% | -6.2% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -4.1% | -6.1% | -14.9% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -7.2% | +0.7% | -14.8% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -4.1% | +4.7% | +11.9% | -13.0% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -5.4% | +1.8% | +3.6% | -5.4% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -5.9% | -16.3% | -12.9% | -10.6% |
| May 12, 2026 | -3.9% | -12.9% | -17.1% | -15.4% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -3.7% | — | — | — |
| Apr 3, 2025 | -3.3% | -4.8% | +12.5% | +48.1% |
| Feb 21, 2025 | -3.3% | -4.3% | -1.9% | +0.9% |
| Sep 6, 2024 | -3.4% | +8.8% | +26.4% | +28.3% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among URNM's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Jan 28, 2026 |
83.99 +92.7% |
| 200-day average | 59.98 +37.6% |
| 50-day average | 52.38 +20.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 45.21 +3.7% |
| Now | 43.58 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
42.42 -2.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
42.42 -2.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 39.80 -8.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 7 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.