USB
Moving with its group (KRE +1.2%)
- USB +1.51% on the last session vs SPY +0.09%: +1.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Earnings today before the open: EPS $1.33 expected (19 analysts); it moved ±2.3% on average after its last 8 reports.
- The regional bank ETF (KRE) +1.2% (+1.1 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, crossed above 200-day avg ($57.11 today so far, above its 200-day average of $56.79): After its 7 crosses above the 200-day average in the past 5 years, USB was higher a day later 4 times out of 7; half the outcomes fell between -0.4% and +1.2%. History, not a forecast.
- 2 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 2 negative); latest: Raymond James maintained Strong Buy, lowered target $74.00 → $72.00.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.8× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices USB only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
56.89 +1.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
57.69 +2.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 57.11 · prior close 56.26 | |
| Bargain buy side |
55.63 -1.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
54.87 -2.5% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 55.43 | 2 in 10 days | 57.10 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 55.63 | 3 in 10 days | 56.89 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 55.82 | 4 in 10 days | 56.70 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 54.43 | 2 in 10 weeks | 58.16 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 54.87 | 3 in 10 weeks | 57.69 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 55.29 | 4 in 10 weeks | 57.25 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From USB's daily swings (about 1.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among USB's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 76.00 +33.1% |
| Mean analyst target | 69.00 +20.8% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 14, 2026 |
64.81 +13.5% |
| Lowest analyst target | 64.00 +12.1% |
| 50-day average | 60.48 +5.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 57.69 +1.0% |
| Now | 57.11 |
| 200-day average | 56.82 -0.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
56.26 -1.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 54.87 -3.9% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 17, 2025 |
43.79 -23.3% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 53 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.