USFD
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- USFD +2.98% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +2.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices USFD only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
99.86 +1.4% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
101.62 +3.2% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 101.38 · prior close 98.45 | |
| Bargain buy side |
97.06 -1.4% reached 3 in 10 days |
95.38 -3.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 96.62 | 2 in 10 days | 100.32 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 97.06 | 3 in 10 days | 99.86 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 97.48 | 4 in 10 days | 99.43 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 94.40 | 2 in 10 weeks | 102.67 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 95.38 | 3 in 10 weeks | 101.62 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 96.30 | 4 in 10 weeks | 100.65 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From USFD's daily swings (about 1.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among USFD's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 12, 2026 |
110.94 +9.4% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 101.62 +0.2% |
| Now | 101.38 |
| 50-day average | 100.93 -0.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
98.45 -2.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 95.38 -5.9% |
| 200-day average | 93.11 -8.2% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
70.05 -30.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 10 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.