Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- UUUU +0.90% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: +0.8 pts of stock-specific move.
- Filing: 8-K: other event (item 8.01) (filing)
- Filing: 8-K: material agreement, other event (item 1.01, 8.01) (filing)
- 7 Reddit mentions in the past 24 hours, 75% positive over the week.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices UUUU only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
8.71 +4.4% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% |
9.19 +10.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 8.41 · prior close 8.34 | |
| Bargain buy side |
7.99 -4.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
7.57 -9.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 7.87 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 8.83 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 7.99 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 8.71 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 8.09 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 8.60 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 7.33 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 9.48 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 7.57 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 9.19 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 7.79 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 8.92 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From UUUU's daily swings (about 4.5% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -8.9% | -18.7% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -6.3% | -12.1% | -26.9% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -6.8% | -1.4% | -25.1% | — |
| Aug 20, 2026 | -6.4% | +13.2% | -11.5% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -5.9% | +1.2% | +31.7% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -7.9% | +2.9% | +29.4% | -28.5% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -6.6% | +2.9% | -3.3% | -15.9% |
| Jun 3, 2026 | -7.9% | -23.9% | -23.5% | -20.6% |
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | -2.9% | -7.2% | — | — |
| Mar 31, 2025 | -0.5% | -7.5% | +21.2% | +54.2% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | -9.5% | +4.2% | -6.7% | +25.1% |
| Sep 4, 2024 | -0.2% | +11.6% | +27.8% | +59.0% |
| Aug 2, 2024 | -6.1% | -9.6% | -10.4% | +22.6% |
| Apr 30, 2024 | -6.0% | +13.5% | +34.6% | +9.8% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among UUUU's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Apr 13, 2007 |
235.00 +2692.6% |
| Highest analyst target | 32.50 +286.2% |
| 52-week closing high Jan 28, 2026 |
27.72 +229.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 23.35 +177.5% |
| 200-day average | 16.91 +100.9% |
| Lowest analyst target | 14.00 +66.4% |
| 50-day average | 12.77 +51.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 9.19 +9.2% |
| Now | 8.41 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
8.34 -0.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
8.34 -0.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 7.57 -10.0% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 20 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.