V
Moving with its group (XLF +0.7%)
- V +1.30% on the last session vs SPY −0.09%: +1.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- The financials ETF (XLF) +0.7% (+0.8 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (RSI 71 today so far, above 70): After its 16 overbought readings in the past 5 years, V was higher a week later 7 times out of 16; half the outcomes fell between -3.0% and +0.8%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices V only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
396.32 +1.2% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
402.44 +2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 396.52 · prior close 391.43 | |
| Bargain buy side |
386.60 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
380.72 -2.7% ↑ more often while near its 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 29% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 385.05 | 2 in 10 days | 397.92 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 386.60 | 3 in 10 days | 396.32 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 388.06 | 4 in 10 days | 394.83 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 377.31 | 2 in 10 weeks↑ 20% vs 18% | 406.08 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 380.72 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 29% vs 27% | 402.44 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 383.93 | 4 in 10 weeks↑ 44% vs 43% | 399.07 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From V's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 29% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among V's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 466.00 +17.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 419.63 +5.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 402.44 +1.5% |
| Now | 396.52 |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2026 |
396.52 0.0% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
391.43 -1.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 380.72 -4.0% |
| 50-day average | 371.76 -6.2% |
| 200-day average | 338.06 -14.7% |
| Lowest analyst target | 330.00 -16.8% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 27, 2026 |
294.36 -25.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 19 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.