VAL
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices VAL only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
108.10 +2.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
111.66 +6.0% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Last close | 105.31 | |
| Bargain buy side |
102.59 -2.6% reached 3 in 10 days |
99.33 -5.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 101.72 | 2 in 10 days | 109.02 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 102.59 | 3 in 10 days | 108.10 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 103.41 | 4 in 10 days | 107.25 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 97.46 | 2 in 10 weeks | 113.80 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 99.33 | 3 in 10 weeks | 111.66 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 101.10 | 4 in 10 weeks | 109.69 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From VAL's daily swings (about 2.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
Big drop and big gain: among VAL's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high May 18, 2026 |
113.42 +7.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 111.66 +6.0% |
| Last close Oct 30, 2026 |
105.31 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 99.33 -5.7% |
| 50-day average | 86.53 -17.8% |
| 200-day average | 86.13 -18.2% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 18, 2025 |
49.03 -53.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 5 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.