VG
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- VG −6.22% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: −6.2 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 3.5× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices VG only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
13.67 +3.0% reached 3 in 10 days |
14.18 +6.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 12.44 · prior close 13.27 | |
| Bargain buy side |
12.88 -2.9% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
12.42 -6.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 12.76 | 2 in 10 days | 13.80 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 12.88 | 3 in 10 days | 13.67 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 13.00 | 4 in 10 days | 13.55 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 12.16 | 2 in 10 weeks | 14.48 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 12.42 | 3 in 10 weeks | 14.18 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 12.67 | 4 in 10 weeks | 13.90 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From VG's daily swings (about 3.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among VG's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jan 24, 2025 |
23.71 +90.5% |
| 52-week closing high Mar 27, 2026 |
17.46 +40.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 14.18 +13.9% |
| 50-day average | 13.87 +11.4% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
13.27 +6.6% |
| Now | 12.44 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 12.42 -0.2% |
| 200-day average | 12.31 -1.1% |
| 52-week closing low Dec 16, 2025 |
5.89 -52.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 2 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.