VIAV
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- VIAV −8.40% on the last session vs SPY +0.06%: −8.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices VIAV only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
40.39 +4.8% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
42.78 +11.0% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 35.31 · prior close 38.55 | |
| Bargain buy side |
36.80 -4.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
34.74 -9.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 36.24 | 2 in 10 days | 41.00 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 36.80 | 3 in 10 days | 40.39 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 37.32 | 4 in 10 days | 39.82 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 33.58 | 2 in 10 weeks | 44.25 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 34.74 | 3 in 10 weeks | 42.78 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 35.85 | 4 in 10 weeks | 41.45 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From VIAV's daily swings (about 4.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | -3.9% | -16.7% | — | — |
| Sep 10, 2026 | -4.5% | -7.1% | +21.6% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -5.0% | -4.6% | +14.4% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -10.6% | -8.8% | -16.0% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -3.5% | +10.8% | -13.5% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -5.5% | -6.5% | -6.5% | — |
| Jul 15, 2026 | -4.1% | +5.3% | +7.2% | +2.9% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | -5.2% | +4.1% | -3.3% | +16.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among VIAV's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Mar 6, 2000 |
666.81 +1788.4% |
| 52-week closing high May 1, 2026 |
55.33 +56.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 42.78 +21.2% |
| 50-day average | 39.37 +11.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
38.55 +9.2% |
| 200-day average | 37.92 +7.4% |
| Now | 35.31 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 34.74 -1.6% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2025 |
12.78 -63.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 33 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.