VIRT
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- VIRT +3.97% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: +4.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices VIRT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
57.05 +2.8% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
59.05 +6.4% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 57.68 · prior close 55.48 | |
| Bargain buy side |
53.95 -2.8% reached 3 in 10 days |
52.12 -6.1% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 53.47 | 2 in 10 days | 57.57 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 53.95 | 3 in 10 days | 57.05 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 54.41 | 4 in 10 days | 56.57 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 51.08 | 2 in 10 weeks | 60.26 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 52.12 | 3 in 10 weeks | 59.05 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 53.12 | 4 in 10 weeks | 57.95 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From VIRT's daily swings (about 2.9% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among VIRT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 21, 2026 |
67.68 +17.3% |
| 50-day average | 59.30 +2.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 59.05 +2.4% |
| Now | 57.68 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
55.48 -3.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 52.12 -9.6% |
| 200-day average | 50.60 -12.3% |
| 52-week closing low Jan 8, 2026 |
32.07 -44.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 11 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.