VKTX
Moving with its weight-loss drugs peers
- VKTX +5.10% on the last session vs SPY −0.00%: +5.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Weight-loss drugs basket +4.6% (+4.5 pts vs SPY; LLY +5.3%, NVO +3.8%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices VKTX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
27.00 +6.0% ↑ more often after a new 52-week low
reached 4 in 10 days · 36% vs usual 28% reached today |
29.02 +13.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 26.77 · prior close 25.47 | |
| Bargain buy side |
24.03 -5.7% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% |
22.36 -12.2% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 23.58 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 27.52 | 3 in 10 days↑ 25% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 24.03 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 27.00 | 4 in 10 days↑ 36% vs 28% |
| Eager | 24.45 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 26.53 | 5 in 10 days↑ 52% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 21.43 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 30.27 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 22.36 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 29.02 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 23.26 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 27.89 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From VKTX's daily swings (about 6.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 36% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2025 | -1.8% | -11.8% | +8.9% | +3.3% |
| Feb 12, 2025 | -2.1% | +7.9% | +5.4% | -9.4% |
| May 24, 2022 | -3.1% | -2.3% | +32.1% | +67.0% |
| Mar 31, 2022 | -1.6% | 0.0% | -15.7% | -6.0% |
| Feb 18, 2022 | -3.1% | -1.5% | -2.1% | -32.9% |
| Jan 5, 2022 | -6.1% | -5.5% | -18.2% | -29.7% |
| Dec 1, 2021 | -5.5% | +4.0% | -8.4% | -35.9% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among VKTX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Feb 28, 2024 |
94.50 +253.0% |
| 52-week closing high Jul 7, 2026 |
42.13 +57.4% |
| 200-day average | 32.80 +22.5% |
| 50-day average | 32.32 +20.7% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 29.02 +8.4% |
| Now | 26.77 |
| 52-week closing low Oct 14, 2026 |
25.47 -4.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
25.47 -4.9% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 22.36 -16.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 11 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.