VLO
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- VLO −0.53% on the last session vs SPY +0.74%: −1.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (Oct 1): After its 57 big gains in the past 5 years, VLO typically gained 0.3% over the next day (median) and was higher 53% of the time; half the outcomes fell between -1.1% and +1.9%. An ordinary day: +0.2%. Among S&P 500 stocks after big gains, that ranks #140 of 500.
- Market backdrop (Fri): Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% vs 0.3% expected (cooler); Non-Farm Employment Change 29K vs 89K expected (weaker); S&P futures +0.41%, 10-year yield -5bp in the 30 minutes after.
After each kind of event
| Event | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any day | 1,255 | +0.2%#31 H | +0.7%#36 H | +3.5%#12 H | +9.7%#24 M |
| Big drop (-2.4% or worse) | 56 | +0.1%#246 H | -0.1%#361 H | +2.0%#196 H | +7.7%#122 M |
| Big gain Oct 1 (+2.9% or better) | 57 | +0.3%#140 H | +0.6%#209 H | +1.2%#239 H | +6.9%#182 M |
| Earnings beat | 20 | 0.0%#285 H | -1.0%#424 H | +3.7%#71 H | +11.3%#21 M |
| Earnings miss | — | — | — | — | — |
| 52-week high | 13 | -0.2%#254 M | -0.1%#277 M | +4.2%#150 M | +15.8%#85 L |
| 52-week low | 2 | -4.3%– | -2.0%– | +11.4%– | +19.4%– |
| Crossed above 200-day avg | 7 | -0.9%#435 L | +0.6%#228 L | -0.4%#313 L | +5.2%#169 L |
| Crossed below 200-day avg | 7 | -0.5%#348 L | +1.1%#180 L | +1.0%#245 L | +10.7%#66 L |
| RSI oversold | 4 | -1.1%#274 L | -3.2%#390 L | +3.8%#65 L | +19.7%#27 L |
| RSI overbought | 23 | +0.2%#105 H | +2.0%#21 H | +5.0%#43 H | +4.8%#107 M |
| Reddit spike | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst upgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Analyst downgrade | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider buy | — | — | — | — | — |
| Insider unplanned sale | — | — | — | — | — |
Median gain from the close of the session the event was known, over each holding period; #rank among the S&P 500 stocks after the same kind of event (#1 = best). "Big" is VLO's own: its worst / best 10% of days over the prior 2 years. Highlighted: happening in the latest session.
Big gain (+2.9% or better)
A daily rise among the stock's own best 10% of the prior 2 years.
| Holding | Events | Median (likely range) | Confidence | Rank | Up | vs SPY | Range of outcomes (worst · 25–75% · median · best) | vs S&P 500 stocks (their medians) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 57 | +0.34% (-0.2 to +0.7) | High | #140 of 500 | 53% | +0.23% |
-7%
+7%
|
|
| 1 week | 56 | +0.56% (-0.1 to +2.3) | High | #209 of 500 | 59% | +1.09% |
-11%
+10%
|
|
| 1 month | 55 ≈34 indep. | +1.18% (-0.9 to +6.1) | High | #239 of 500 | 56% | +0.46% |
-21%
+28%
|
|
| 1 quarter | 52 ≈15 indep. | +6.86% (+0.3 to +16.3) | Medium | #182 of 499 | 69% | +3.16% |
-23%
+62%
|
Range of outcomes: all of VLO's big gains in the past 5 years, from the worst to the best result over each holding period; the box holds the middle half, the tick is the median. A wide box means the median alone says little. Hover the median for the average.
Big gain by trend
| When it happened | Events | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long trendAbove its 200-day avg now | 42 | +0.4%H vs +0.1% | +0.5%H vs +0.7% | +3.7%H vs +3.5% | +12.2%M vs +10.1% |
| Below its 200-day avg | 15 | +0.3%M vs +0.2% | +0.6%M vs +0.7% | -2.4%M vs +1.9% | +0.3%L vs +7.0% |
| Medium trendAbove its 50-day avg now | 42 | +0.5%H vs +0.2% | +0.5%H vs +0.6% | +0.3%H vs +3.9% | +7.9%M vs +10.1% |
| Below its 50-day avg | 15 | 0.0%M vs +0.2% | +1.8%M vs +1.0% | +3.6%M vs +3.5% | +5.5%M vs +8.3% |
| Short trendAbove its 20-day avg now | 45 | +0.5%H vs +0.3% | +0.6%H vs +0.5% | +0.4%H vs +3.6% | +9.0%M vs +10.1% |
| Below its 20-day avg | 12 | -0.1%M vs +0.2% | +0.8%M vs +1.0% | +4.9%M vs +3.7% | +4.3%M vs +10.8% |
The same event split by where VLO stood against its 200-, 50- and 20-day averages when it happened (a dip in an uptrend vs a falling knife); "vs" is the plain any-day median in that trend; "now" marks where it stands today. Splitting halves the evidence, so watch the confidence letters: H / M / L.
Latest big gains
| Event | Entry | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 quarter | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Oct 1 @ $408.46 | +5.4% on the day (line +2.9%) | -0.5% | … | … | … |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Sep 8 @ $382.85 | +3.3% on the day (line +2.9%) | +1.6% | +3.7% | … | … |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Aug 10 @ $314.95 | +5.6% on the day (line +2.8%) | +2.8% | +10.2% | +23.5% | … |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Jul 30 @ $310.51 | +3.5% on the day (line +2.9%) | +0.8% | -2.4% | +13.5% | … |
| Jul 13, 2026 | Jul 13 @ $294.65 | +5.4% on the day (line +2.8%) | +1.9% | +5.9% | +9.9% | … |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Jul 1 @ $268.40 | +3.5% on the day (line +2.7%) | -0.6% | +4.4% | +16.6% | +44.4% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Jun 22 @ $242.84 | +3.2% on the day (line +2.7%) | 0.0% | +9.2% | +27.5% | +61.9% |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Jun 1 @ $251.55 | +3.1% on the day (line +2.7%) | +2.3% | +2.3% | +6.7% | +42.7% |
| May 11, 2026 | May 11 @ $246.01 | +2.9% on the day (line +2.7%) | -0.4% | +4.2% | +4.5% | +31.7% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Apr 29 @ $249.15 | +4.6% on the day (line +2.6%) | +0.5% | -5.8% | -2.1% | +24.6% |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Apr 16 @ $239.67 | +2.9% on the day (line +2.6%) | -7.5% | -3.3% | +3.7% | +28.7% |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Mar 26 @ $246.02 | +5.8% on the day (line +2.6%) | +2.5% | -1.6% | -4.0% | +5.0% |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Mar 11 @ $229.07 | +6.5% on the day (line +2.6%) | +2.1% | +3.2% | +3.4% | +12.2% |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Mar 2 @ $213.07 | +5.0% on the day (line +2.6%) | +1.3% | +0.5% | +15.0% | +18.1% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Feb 3 @ $189.47 | +6.7% on the day (line +2.5%) | +2.7% | +4.4% | +19.3% | +32.6% |
Aftermath: entry is the close of the first session the event was fully known (the same session for price moves, the reaction session for earnings, the next session for Reddit, analyst and insider events, which are dated by day). Repeats within a few sessions count as one event. Past performance after an event says nothing certain about the next one. Not advice.