VLTO
Analyst target raises behind the outperformance
- VLTO +1.03% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +0.9 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, rsi overbought (RSI 71 today so far, above 70): After its 9 overbought readings in the past 5 years, VLTO was higher a week later 2 times out of 9; half the outcomes fell between -1.2% and -0.0%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: UBS maintained Neutral, raised target $104 → $106.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices VLTO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
101.77 +1.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
103.16 +2.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 101.70 · prior close 100.66 | |
| Bargain buy side |
99.56 -1.1% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
98.22 -2.4% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 99.20 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 102.14 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 99.56 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 101.77 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 99.89 | 4 in 10 days | 101.43 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 97.43 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 103.99 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 98.22 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 103.16 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 98.95 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 102.40 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From VLTO's daily swings (about 1.1% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | +2.0% | +1.7% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | +2.3% | -1.2% | +2.9% | — |
| Aug 19, 2026 | +4.2% | -1.4% | -5.6% | — |
| Aug 4, 2026 | +1.7% | +1.6% | +0.8% | — |
| Jul 27, 2026 | +2.5% | +0.6% | +4.8% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | +3.5% | -2.9% | +3.7% | +7.0% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | +1.9% | +1.9% | +4.2% | +4.5% |
| Jun 18, 2026 | +1.5% | +6.8% | +7.5% | +12.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among VLTO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 133.00 +30.8% |
| Mean analyst target | 114.00 +12.1% |
| All-time closing high Oct 18, 2024 |
112.47 +10.6% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 23, 2025 |
104.28 +2.5% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 103.16 +1.4% |
| Now | 101.70 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
100.66 -1.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 100.00 -1.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 98.22 -3.4% |
| 50-day average | 96.87 -4.7% |
| 200-day average | 92.60 -9.0% |
| 52-week closing low May 29, 2026 |
82.00 -19.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 3 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.