VMC
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- VMC +3.34% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +3.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+3.3% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.9%): After its 56 big gains in the past 5 years, VMC was higher a day later 38 times out of 56; half the outcomes fell between -1.0% and +1.2%. History, not a forecast.
- 4 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 4 negative); latest: RBC Capital maintained Sector Perform, lowered target $300 → $256.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices VMC only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
244.81 +1.3% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
248.61 +2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
| Now | 249.85 · prior close 241.77 | |
| Bargain buy side |
238.77 -1.2% reached 3 in 10 days |
235.11 -2.8% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 237.80 | 2 in 10 days | 245.80 | 2 in 10 days |
| Balanced | 238.77 | 3 in 10 days | 244.81 | 3 in 10 days |
| Eager | 239.67 | 4 in 10 days | 243.88 | 5 in 10 days |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 232.99 | 2 in 10 weeks | 250.88 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 235.11 | 3 in 10 weeks | 248.61 | 3 in 10 weeks |
| Eager | 237.11 | 4 in 10 weeks | 246.52 | 5 in 10 weeks |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From VMC's daily swings (about 1.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
Big drop and big gain: among VMC's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 365.00 +46.1% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Feb 10, 2026 |
328.48 +31.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 312.30 +25.0% |
| 200-day average | 281.17 +12.5% |
| 50-day average | 258.68 +3.5% |
| Now | 249.85 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 248.61 -0.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
241.77 -3.2% |
| 52-week closing low Sep 18, 2026 |
240.83 -3.6% |
| Lowest analyst target | 238.00 -4.7% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 235.11 -5.9% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 54 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.