VOO
Moving with the market
- VOO +0.03% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: +0.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices VOO only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
711.66 +0.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
716.91 +1.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 707.62 · prior close 707.43 | |
| Bargain buy side |
703.23 -0.6% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
698.07 -1.3% ↑ more often while near its 52-week high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 29% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 701.87 | 2 in 10 days | 713.03 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 703.23 | 3 in 10 days | 711.66 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 704.50 | 4 in 10 days | 710.37 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 695.06 | 2 in 10 weeks↑ 20% vs 18% | 720.02 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 698.07 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 29% vs 27% | 716.91 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 700.89 | 4 in 10 weeks↑ 44% vs 43% | 714.03 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From VOO's daily swings (about 0.6% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | -1.2% | +0.5% | +3.7% | — |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -1.2% | -0.8% | +0.4% | +3.2% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -2.6% | +0.6% | +1.4% | +4.7% |
| May 15, 2026 | -1.2% | +0.9% | +1.5% | +4.8% |
| Mar 26, 2026 | -1.8% | +1.7% | +10.9% | +13.3% |
| Mar 18, 2026 | -1.4% | -0.4% | +7.6% | +12.4% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | -1.3% | -1.5% | -1.7% | +10.0% |
| Feb 23, 2026 | -1.0% | +0.6% | -4.0% | +9.6% |
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 29% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among VOO's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 716.91 +1.3% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Oct 6, 2026 |
716.20 +1.2% |
| Now | 707.62 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
707.43 0.0% |
| 50-day average | 705.38 -0.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 698.07 -1.3% |
| 200-day average | 663.02 -6.3% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
577.76 -18.4% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 16 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.