VRNS
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- VRNS −0.98% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: −1.1 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices VRNS only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
48.55 +3.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
50.47 +7.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 46.60 · prior close 47.06 | |
| Bargain buy side |
45.61 -3.1% reached 3 in 10 days |
43.88 -6.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 45.15 | 2 in 10 days | 49.05 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 45.61 | 3 in 10 days | 48.55 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 46.05 | 4 in 10 days | 48.10 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 42.90 | 2 in 10 weeks | 51.63 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 43.88 | 3 in 10 weeks | 50.47 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 44.82 | 4 in 10 weeks | 49.41 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From VRNS's daily swings (about 3.2% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -7.5% | — | — | — |
| Sep 25, 2026 | -3.5% | +2.9% | — | — |
| Sep 1, 2026 | -3.2% | +8.8% | +12.0% | — |
| Aug 17, 2026 | -4.0% | -4.9% | +8.3% | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | -9.0% | +6.8% | +10.2% | — |
| Jul 21, 2026 | -2.7% | -3.3% | -8.4% | — |
| Jul 10, 2026 | -2.8% | +6.8% | -4.7% | +9.8% |
| May 27, 2026 | -2.6% | +10.8% | +33.3% | +36.9% |
Big drop and big gain: among VRNS's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Sep 7, 2021 |
73.41 +57.5% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 28, 2025 |
63.00 +35.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 50.47 +8.3% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
47.06 +1.0% |
| Now | 46.60 |
| 50-day average | 45.62 -2.1% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 43.88 -5.8% |
| 200-day average | 34.67 -25.6% |
| 52-week closing low Apr 10, 2026 |
20.19 -56.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 13 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.