VRSK
Outperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- VRSK +5.44% on the last session vs SPY +0.10%: +5.3 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, big gain (+5.4% today so far, past its big-gain line of +1.9%): After its 58 big gains in the past 5 years, VRSK was higher a day later 32 times out of 58; half the outcomes fell between -0.9% and +1.3%. History, not a forecast.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 1.6× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices VRSK only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
184.18 +2.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
188.74 +4.5% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 190.40 · prior close 180.58 | |
| Bargain buy side |
177.05 -2.0% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
172.77 -4.3% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 175.91 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 185.37 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 177.05 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 184.18 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 178.11 | 4 in 10 days | 183.09 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 170.31 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 191.47 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 172.77 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 188.74 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 175.10 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 186.23 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From VRSK's daily swings (about 2.0% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | +2.1% | +7.1% | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | +6.1% | -7.8% | -5.3% | — |
| Aug 13, 2026 | +3.1% | +0.9% | +0.6% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | +4.2% | -3.2% | -5.9% | — |
| Jul 13, 2026 | +4.5% | +4.2% | -6.6% | -8.1% |
| Jul 1, 2026 | +2.3% | +1.8% | +6.1% | -8.4% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | +3.4% | +2.7% | +10.5% | -1.3% |
| Jun 9, 2026 | +2.0% | -1.3% | +1.8% | -2.2% |
Big drop and big gain: among VRSK's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high Jun 4, 2025 |
317.13 +66.6% |
| Highest analyst target | 260.00 +36.6% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2025 |
241.55 +26.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 230.94 +21.3% |
| Lowest analyst target | 195.00 +2.4% |
| Now | 190.40 |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 188.74 -0.9% |
| 200-day average | 187.15 -1.7% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
180.58 -5.2% |
| 50-day average | 179.30 -5.8% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 172.77 -9.3% |
| 52-week closing low May 14, 2026 |
156.00 -18.1% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 17 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.