VRT
Moving with its ai servers & data centers peers
- VRT −6.97% on the last session vs SPY +0.01%: −7.0 pts of stock-specific move.
- AI servers & data centers basket -5.1% (-5.1 pts vs SPY; DELL -8.8%, HPE -6.4%, SMCI -5.1%, GEV -3.0%): the stock moved with its peers.
- Aftermath, volume spike (3.2× average volume on pace today so far): After its 17 volume spikes in the past 5 years, VRT was higher a day later 15 times out of 17; half the outcomes fell between +0.6% and +6.6%. History, not a forecast.
- 3 analyst actions in the past 10 days (0 positive, 0 negative); latest: GLJ Research reiterated Sell, target $188.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
- Activity: volume on pace for 3.2× its 20-day average.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices VRT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
230.01 +3.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
239.20 +7.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 207.29 · prior close 222.83 | |
| Bargain buy side |
215.88 -3.1% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 2 in 10 days · 24% vs usual 26% reached today |
207.58 -6.8% ↓ less often while far below its high
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 213.67 | 2 in 10 days↓ 15% vs 17% | 232.39 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 215.88 | 2 in 10 days↓ 24% vs 26% | 230.01 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 217.96 | 4 in 10 days↓ 40% vs 41% | 227.81 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 202.86 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 244.77 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 207.58 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 239.20 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 212.09 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 41% vs 43% | 234.12 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From VRT's daily swings (about 3.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | -9.6% | -8.9% | -7.3% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -4.5% | +9.1% | -3.4% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -6.8% | -6.2% | -11.4% | — |
| Jul 24, 2026 | -4.5% | -16.8% | -12.2% | — |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -7.0% | +4.0% | -22.4% | -22.5% |
| Jun 23, 2026 | -11.1% | +5.2% | -4.5% | -20.4% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -7.2% | +0.8% | +5.8% | -6.6% |
| May 18, 2026 | -8.4% | -4.7% | -6.5% | -19.8% |
- Bargain price, next session: reached 24% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 10 of 10 years)
Big drop and big gain: among VRT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 427.00 +106.0% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high May 14, 2026 |
376.06 +81.4% |
| Mean analyst target | 337.43 +62.8% |
| 200-day average | 267.95 +29.3% |
| 50-day average | 256.65 +23.8% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 239.20 +15.4% |
| Lowest analyst target | 236.00 +13.9% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
222.83 +7.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 207.58 +0.1% |
| Now | 207.29 |
| 52-week closing low Dec 17, 2025 |
149.73 -27.8% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 8 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.