VRTX
Moving with its group (XBI +2.4%)
- VRTX +2.53% on the last session vs SPY +0.12%: +2.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- The biotech ETF (XBI) +2.4% (+2.4 pts vs SPY): the stock moved with its group.
- Aftermath, big gain (+2.5% today so far, past its big-gain line of +2.1%): After its 63 big gains in the past 5 years, VRTX was higher a week later 33 times out of 63; half the outcomes fell between -2.5% and +2.4%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (1 positive, 0 negative); latest: RBC Capital maintained Outperform, raised target $570 → $576.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices VRTX only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
506.84 +1.7% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 26% vs usual 28% reached today |
517.35 +3.8% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 26% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 511.09 · prior close 498.50 | |
| Bargain buy side |
490.29 -1.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 days · 25% vs usual 26% |
480.34 -3.6% ↓ less often after a big gain
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 25% vs usual 27% |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 487.66 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% | 509.58 | 2 in 10 days↓ 16% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 490.29 | 3 in 10 days↓ 25% vs 26% | 506.84 | 3 in 10 days↓ 26% vs 28% |
| Eager | 492.76 | 4 in 10 days | 504.30 | 4 in 10 days↓ 42% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 474.58 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 16% vs 18% | 523.62 | 2 in 10 weeks↓ 15% vs 19% |
| Balanced | 480.34 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 25% vs 27% | 517.35 | 3 in 10 weeks↓ 26% vs 30% |
| Eager | 485.77 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 40% vs 43% | 511.57 | 4 in 10 weeks↓ 44% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From VRTX's daily swings (about 1.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 26% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next session: reached 25% of days instead of the usual 26% (held in 8 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 26% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 10 of 10 years)
- Bargain price, next 5 sessions: reached 25% of weeks instead of the usual 27% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | +2.5% | +4.7% | -2.2% | — |
| Aug 7, 2026 | +2.5% | +2.0% | +6.6% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | +2.4% | -2.4% | +11.6% | — |
| Jul 2, 2026 | +6.0% | -8.1% | -10.9% | -4.0% |
| Jun 22, 2026 | +3.4% | +7.0% | +1.2% | +9.4% |
| Jun 11, 2026 | +2.1% | +1.5% | +7.0% | +15.8% |
| May 28, 2026 | +2.5% | -1.4% | +11.5% | +22.2% |
| May 12, 2026 | +3.0% | -3.1% | -0.7% | +17.3% |
Big drop and big gain: among VRTX's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 672.00 +31.5% |
| Mean analyst target | 571.61 +11.8% |
| All-time and 52-week closing high Sep 3, 2026 |
557.96 +9.2% |
| 50-day average | 522.27 +2.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 517.35 +1.2% |
| Now | 511.09 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
498.50 -2.5% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 480.34 -6.0% |
| 200-day average | 475.68 -6.9% |
| 52-week closing low Oct 15, 2025 |
407.90 -20.2% |
| Lowest analyst target | 350.00 -31.5% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 35 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.