VSAT
Underperforming without a clear catalyst yet
- VSAT −2.39% on the last session vs SPY +0.02%: −2.4 pts of stock-specific move.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices VSAT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
64.35 +4.2% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
67.75 +9.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 60.26 · prior close 61.73 | |
| Bargain buy side |
59.21 -4.1% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
56.25 -8.9% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 58.42 | 2 in 10 days | 65.23 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 59.21 | 3 in 10 days | 64.35 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 59.97 | 4 in 10 days | 63.55 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 54.57 | 2 in 10 weeks | 69.83 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 56.25 | 3 in 10 weeks | 67.75 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 57.85 | 4 in 10 weeks | 65.87 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From VSAT's daily swings (about 4.3% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | -6.0% | — | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2026 | -6.9% | -1.9% | -6.8% | — |
| Aug 28, 2026 | -7.4% | +11.8% | +2.6% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -6.6% | -4.7% | -4.0% | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | -6.0% | +7.7% | -11.5% | — |
| Jul 1, 2026 | -7.6% | -15.2% | -7.3% | -15.2% |
| Jun 15, 2026 | -6.1% | -3.0% | +4.3% | +7.2% |
| May 29, 2026 | -7.0% | -16.7% | +11.4% | -16.4% |
Big drop and big gain: among VSAT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time closing high May 24, 2019 |
94.25 +56.4% |
| 52-week closing high Jun 30, 2026 |
89.81 +49.0% |
| 50-day average | 73.44 +21.9% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 67.75 +12.4% |
| 200-day average | 62.36 +3.5% |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
61.73 +2.4% |
| Now | 60.26 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 56.25 -6.7% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 21, 2025 |
30.35 -49.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 30 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.