VST
Moving with the market
- VST +0.57% on the last session vs SPY +0.04%: +0.5 pts of stock-specific move.
- Aftermath, crossed below 200-day avg (Oct 14): After its 8 crosses below the 200-day average in the past 5 years, VST was higher a day later 2 times out of 8; half the outcomes fell between -3.9% and +0.1%. History, not a forecast.
- 1 analyst action in the past 10 days (0 positive, 1 negative); latest: BMO Capital maintained Outperform, lowered target $231 → $210.
- 2 insider or congressional trades in the past 30 days.
- Market backdrop (Today): Core PPI m/m 1.3% vs 0.3% expected (hotter); Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9% vs 0.6% expected (stronger); S&P futures -0.08%, 10-year yield -3bp in the 30 minutes after.
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices VST only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Today | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
157.31 +3.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
164.42 +8.3% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Now | 152.65 · prior close 151.79 | |
| Bargain buy side |
146.46 -3.5% reached 3 in 10 days reached today |
140.13 -7.7% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | ||||
| Patient | 144.77 | 2 in 10 days | 159.15 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 146.46 | 3 in 10 days | 157.31 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 148.06 | 4 in 10 days | 155.62 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 136.54 | 2 in 10 weeks | 168.74 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 140.13 | 3 in 10 weeks | 164.42 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 143.57 | 4 in 10 weeks | 160.49 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From VST's daily swings (about 3.7% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 14 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 14 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | -6.3% | — | — | — |
| Sep 14, 2026 | -5.2% | +0.2% | +15.6% | — |
| Jul 28, 2026 | -5.4% | -3.6% | -5.8% | — |
| Jul 16, 2026 | -4.8% | +10.8% | -2.9% | -0.3% |
| Jun 10, 2026 | -5.3% | +14.6% | +14.3% | +6.3% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | -4.5% | +2.9% | +4.2% | -3.2% |
| Mar 30, 2026 | -5.1% | +4.2% | +4.2% | +7.7% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | -12.6% | +6.5% | +6.1% | +14.7% |
Big drop and big gain: among VST's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| Highest analyst target | 305.00 +99.8% |
| All-time closing high Sep 22, 2025 |
216.66 +41.9% |
| Mean analyst target | 210.25 +37.7% |
| 52-week closing high Oct 15, 2025 |
209.63 +37.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 164.42 +7.7% |
| 200-day average | 154.21 +1.0% |
| Now | 152.65 |
| Previous close Oct 14, 2026 |
151.79 -0.6% |
| 50-day average | 144.49 -5.3% |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 140.13 -8.2% |
| 52-week closing low May 19, 2026 |
134.30 -12.0% |
| Lowest analyst target | 106.00 -30.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 10 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from now. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.