VT
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices VT only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
156.47 +0.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
157.90 +1.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Last close | 155.33 | |
| Bargain buy side |
154.20 -0.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
152.81 -1.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 153.83 | 2 in 10 days | 156.85 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 154.20 | 3 in 10 days | 156.47 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 154.54 | 4 in 10 days | 156.13 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 151.99 | 2 in 10 weeks | 158.74 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 152.81 | 3 in 10 weeks | 157.90 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 153.57 | 4 in 10 weeks | 157.11 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From VT's daily swings (about 0.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | -1.3% | +0.9% | — | — |
| Oct 14, 2026 | -1.3% | +0.6% | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2026 | -1.2% | -0.9% | -1.8% | — |
| Aug 18, 2026 | -1.1% | +0.6% | -0.5% | — |
| Jul 23, 2026 | -1.1% | +0.7% | +4.2% | +3.0% |
| Jul 13, 2026 | -1.2% | -1.0% | +3.2% | +2.8% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -1.0% | -0.6% | -1.0% | +2.2% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -3.1% | +1.7% | +1.8% | +5.6% |
Big drop and big gain: among VT's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 13, 2026 |
161.97 +4.3% |
| 50-day average | 158.95 +2.3% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 157.90 +1.7% |
| Last close Oct 30, 2026 |
155.33 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 152.81 -1.6% |
| 200-day average | 152.15 -2.0% |
| 52-week closing low Nov 20, 2025 |
132.53 -14.7% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 18 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.