VTI
Bargain & stretch prices
Prices VTI only reaches with set odds, from its own recent swings. Odds, not a forecast.
| Next session | Next 5 sessions | |
|---|---|---|
| Stretch sell side |
374.28 +0.7% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 days · 31% vs usual 28% |
377.66 +1.6% ↑ more often after a big drop
reached 3 in 10 weeks · 31% vs usual 30% |
| Last close | 371.57 | |
| Bargain buy side |
368.88 -0.7% reached 3 in 10 days |
365.58 -1.6% reached 3 in 10 weeks |
More patient or more eager
| Bargain | Reached | Stretch | Reached | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ||||
| Patient | 368.01 | 2 in 10 days | 375.17 | 2 in 10 days↑ 20% vs 17% |
| Balanced | 368.88 | 3 in 10 days | 374.28 | 3 in 10 days↑ 31% vs 28% |
| Eager | 369.69 | 4 in 10 days | 373.46 | 5 in 10 days↑ 49% vs 45% |
| Next 5 sessions | ||||
| Patient | 363.65 | 2 in 10 weeks | 379.66 | 2 in 10 weeks |
| Balanced | 365.58 | 3 in 10 weeks | 377.66 | 3 in 10 weeks↑ 31% vs 30% |
| Eager | 367.38 | 4 in 10 weeks | 375.81 | 5 in 10 weeks↑ 49% vs 48% |
"3 in 10 days" means the price was reached on about 3 of every 10 days like this one. Patient prices are further away and come less often; eager ones are closer and come more often. From VTI's daily swings (about 0.8% a day lately), anchored on the Oct 30 close. The odds were measured on 10 years of S&P 500 prices (they move about 3 points from year to year with the market: bargain prices come more often in falling years, stretch prices in rising ones), and where a situation below changed them consistently (in at least 8 of 10 years), they are adjusted and marked. In those tests, waiting for the bargain price did no better on average than buying at the close: what you save when it comes, you pay when it doesn't.
Situations on the Oct 30 close
- Stretch price, next session: reached 31% of days instead of the usual 28% (held in 9 of 10 years)
- Stretch price, next 5 sessions: reached 31% of weeks instead of the usual 30% (held in 8 of 10 years)
| Date | That day | 1 week on | 1 month on | 3 months on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | -1.1% | +0.9% | — | — |
| Oct 14, 2026 | -1.2% | +0.6% | — | — |
| Jul 23, 2026 | -1.1% | +0.4% | +3.7% | +4.2% |
| Jun 17, 2026 | -1.2% | -0.5% | +0.4% | +2.9% |
| Jun 5, 2026 | -2.7% | +0.8% | +1.6% | +4.8% |
| May 15, 2026 | -1.3% | +1.1% | +2.1% | +5.6% |
| Mar 26, 2026 | -1.7% | +1.6% | +10.7% | +14.0% |
| Mar 18, 2026 | -1.4% | -0.3% | +7.9% | +12.5% |
Big drop and big gain: among VTI's own worst or best 10% of daily moves, as on the Aftermath tab. The past times are history: in our tests, how a stock did after its earlier times did not predict the next one, and across the S&P 500 none of these situations leaned up or down except, weakly, an all-time high followed by a big drop. Not advice.
Price ladder
| All-time and 52-week closing high Aug 13, 2026 |
383.33 +3.2% |
| Stretch, next 5 sessions | 377.66 +1.6% |
| 50-day average | 376.96 +1.5% |
| Last close Oct 30, 2026 |
371.57 |
| Bargain, next 5 sessions | 365.58 -1.6% |
| 200-day average | 357.76 -3.7% |
| 52-week closing low Mar 30, 2026 |
310.00 -16.6% |
Closing prices (all-time = the 25 years Yahoo has). Percentages are the distance from the last close. These are levels people watch, not levels the price has to respect. Not advice.